Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? Here’s why prediction markets say yes

Michael Hassall Published February 19, 2026

Half-Life 3 is one of the most anticipated games in the past few decades, and given it’s been 19 years since a mainline Half-Life game, and six years since Half-Life: Alyx, many are wondering if the time is now.

But why? And why are 35% of Kalshi predictors saying ‘Yes,’ they believe Half-Life 3 will release in 2026. Well, there are a lot of hints, a lot of rumors, and we’re here to navigate all this information and figure out why predictors believe Valve will finally learn to count to three with Half-Life 3.

34-35% of Kalshi Predictors think Half-Life 3 will be released in 2026. Image Credit: Kalshi

Will Half-Life 3 get announced before 2027? Here’s why 35% of Kalshi predictors say yes

A quick glance and major prediction markets shows you that the upcoming surprise releases for games in 2026 are a hot asset. In Kalshi’s “Which video games will release this year?” market, Half-Life 3 is the second most highly bought ‘Yes’ prediction, with 34% of users believing the game will release before 2027.  The only game higher is crowdfunded space shooter Squadron 42, from the creators of Star Citizen.

Meanwhile on Polymarket, the market for Half-Life 3 being announced before 2027 sits at a huge 55% saying yes, although has trended down since December 2025 when rumors were at a fever pitch.

What rumors? Well, back in late November, signs seemed to point towards an imminent major announcement from Valve. That announcement, as it turned out, didn’t materialize, but still energized from the hype of Valve’s new wave of Hardware, some thought a Half-Life 3 reveal at The Game Awards 2025 was on the cards, especially with host Jeff Keighley promising something extra special for the final announcement.

That release turned out to be the disastrous Highguard, but still, hope hasn’t dwindled for a Valve announcement or reveal.

Valve has traditionally not been an organization to rely on broader marketing through traditional avenues. Instead, for the past decade, they’ve relied on marketing through their own platform, Steam, seeing organic growth in their audience. As a result, when the game is announced, it’s expected to be on Steam, rather than in a larger announcement.

‘Hold on Gordon, there’s no indication Half-Life 3 is going to be announced this year…’ Image Credit: Valve

Will Half-Life 3 release in 2026?

Valve moves in mysterious ways, and while with most organizations and publishers we could expect details to leak in an earnings call or receive a big trailer with a long runway for release date, it’s not impossible that Valve could just shadow drop the game in the next 10 months or so.

• Kalshi predictors are on board with this, with 35% going yes, versus 65% no. With ‘Yes’ sailing at $0.36, and a volume for $5,000 for that market alone, there’s potential for a big payout. The whole video game release market has a $50,904 volume, so the Half-Life 3 sub-market is easily 10% of that.
• On Polymarket, Yes is a more pricey buy at $0.57, but with a volume of $81,187 (at the time of writing), the upside is huge.

Remember though, we’ve been waiting literal decades for this game. And Valve still, in 2026, has not released a game with ‘three’ in its title. Is Half-Life 3 coming? Only Gaben knows.

See also: Best GTA 6 prediction markets on Kalshi

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Featured Image Credit: Valve