ESL One Birmingham Playoff predictions, picks and odds

Michael Hassall Published March 25, 2026

After a volatile group stage that almost saw some of the favorites miss out, we’re finally at the ESL One Birmingham Playoffs. Over the next four days we’ll see the very best in Dota 2 teams compete for the ESL One trophy at an event with a storied history.

But who do we think will make it to the finals and claim those crucial EPT points and huge share of the prize pool? We’ve put together a dedicated analysis of the group stage, coupled with the elements that have shaken up ESL One Birmingham to let you know who to pick as the tournament continues.

ESL One Birmingham Playoff current odds

Here’s the current outright odds for ESL One Birmingham playoffs:

Image Credit: ESL FACEIT Group

ESL One Birmingham Group Stage Recap

The ESL One Birmingham group stage was chaos for a number of reasons, but primarily because many of the teams we expected to perform well started off poorly and almost missed out completely on playoffs. This was definitely the case for Team Falcons and PARIVISION, who we’d predicted would perform well at the event, but in early parts of the event just dropped crucial games to their opponents.

While some favorites, like Team Yandex and Tundra esports easily dominated their groups, others, such as BetBoom and Virtus.pro, struggled to achieve the success that seemed right within their grasp.

Perhaps most heartbreakingly was GamerLegion, the sole NA representatives, who struggled to a 6-8 finish and were only narrowly denied a trip to the playoff bracket by a best-of-one tiebreaker series.

Patch 7.41

Beyond just volatility in the normal performance of some of the best Dota 2 teams in the world, Valve decided to shake things up in the competitive scene even more by dropping the long-awaited 7.41 Dota 2 update on the evening of March 24, with one day of the group stage to go.

This patch was huge, and while we won’t go too far in-depth, the biggest changes are worth noting. For one, Facets, a feature which modified the playstyle of every single hero in the game, were removed. Many of the abilities from Facets were folded into the main kit of heroes, but for others they lost out entirely on abilities and enhancements.

Valve decided to shake up the competitive scene with a mid-tournament patch. Image Credit: Valve

Then there were the removal of certain items, and the addition of some major new items to the game. Beyond this, the volatility behind neutral items has been partially stabilized, and even the way waves move in side lanes has changed (pre-seven minutes thirty).

Overall, this has meant that teams are almost reset to base values in terms of their strategies. In just a day of competition, we’ve seen teams resort to comfort picks, completely misread what’s strong and what’s not, and otherwise just suffer from new-patch blues. To this end, predictions are somewhat skewed.

ESL One Birmingham Playoff picks and predictions

With all this taken into consideration, we have to look at outright winners and predictions for ESL One Birmingham’s playoff stage.

• Team Yandex seems like they’ll have the upper hand against a Team Spirit team that’s struggled with consistency. Even though Yandex haven’t really been challenged on the new patch, Spirit struggled with the previous one, and will likely continue to underperform here.
• Aurora Gaming seem outmatched by a Tundra Esports team that got a major buff to some of Neta “33” Shapira and Ivan “Pure” Moskalenko’s best heroes. With that in mind, we’d heavily favor Tundra, who are also our picks as favorites to win the event.
• MOUZ are going to have their hands full with Xtreme Gaming, who could easily take games off them in a situation where they can’t afford to lose. We’re still picking MOUZ, but it won’t be clean. 2-1 MOUZ.
• It’s hard to count out Team Falcons with how incredible a turnaround they had at the end of the group stage. We’re looking at the reigning TI champs, the five players that have been together longer than any other in Dota 2. Sorry PARIVISION, but we’re going Falcons.

Stick with Esportsbetting.com for coverage throughout ESL One Birmingham, with onsite insight, and keep your eyes peeled for more Dota 2 news, guides, and more.

Featured Image Credit: ESL FACEIT Group