Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports: Who will win the LEC Summer final?

Naerlyn Published September 20, 2026

Everyone expected the LEC Summer final to be the G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp rematch. Instead, Movistar KOI upset KC with a 3-0 sweep, so it’ll instead be an MKOI vs G2 match-up for the LEC championship. The winner will claim Europe’s first seed at the LoL World Championship and one more regional title for their organisation. The prediction markets have G2 as the heavy favorite.

Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports prediction market

Market-implied chances courtesy of Polymarket on September 20, 1am CEST, with a volume of $2.9k.  

The prediction market for MKOI vs G2. Image Credit: Polymarket

Why the market favors G2 Esports

There are three reasons for the prediction market to favor G2 in the LEC grand final. First, G2 wins the LEC most of the time. 19 times has this team claimed a title in Europe.

G2 has always been that good, and whomever faces them in an LEC final does so as the underdog. The only time they weren’t the favorite was when they were facing Rasmus “Caps” Winther in 2018. Unfortunately for the competition, he’s been part of the team ever since.

Second, MKOI is not convincing. Movistar KOI has had a mediocre year concluded by a terrible Summer Split. Then, they turned it around with a miracle unexpected 3-0 win against Karmine Corp.

Does that make them strong enough to beat G2? Most likely not. Even against KC, MKOI displayed some of their usual flaws. Javier “Elyoya” Prades Batalla fumbled a fight in a completely baffling way by simply leaving the battle, and David “Supa” Martínez García once again died in the mid lane for no reason.

MKOI is full of players who are great at getting ahead. The problem is that they aren’t disciplined, and are just as likely to give away their lead. Against KC, they demonstrated the good part and their opponent was unable to take advantage of their shortcomings.

Coincidentally, the third point is that MKOI doesn’t win against G2. They did once in 2025, and almost did it again last split. However, the head-to-head is 5-1 for G2 in playoff matches.

While KC never managed to push back and reveal KOI’s weaknesses, G2 gave them their biggest throw of the year. There’s no doubt that MKOI will make good plays, but they likely won’t manage to convert them.

Can MKOI pull off a second upset in a row against G2? Image Credit: Michał Konkol / Riot Games

Our prediction

Prediction: G2 Esports to win

Beyond every other point already mentioned to favor them, G2 has also got an advantage in preparation time. Movistar KOI has faced Natus Vincere and Karmine Corp back-to-back already, they’ve surely not had time to also prepare well for the final. While G2 regularly falters if they’re a clear favorite, odds are still largely in their favor.

Let us know your predictions on our forums.

Featured Image Credit: Hara Amorós / Riot Games