Movistar KOI vs Natus Vincere: Predictions for the LEC Playoffs

Naerlyn Published September 15, 2026

The LEC Summer Playoffs enters its final week in the Palais Nikaia in Nice, France. Movistar KOI will face Natus Vincere on September 18 at 5pm CEST / 11am EST for the second round of the lower bracket. The winner of this match advances to face Karmine Corp in the lower final and qualifies for the 2026 LoL World Championship. For MKOI vs NAVI, the prediction markets have Movistar KOI as the winner.

Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality prediction market

Market-implied chances courtesy of Polymarket on September 15, 5am CEST, with a volume of $3.5k. 

The prediction market for MKOI vs NAVI. Image Credit: Polymarket

Why the market favors Movistar KOI

Before looking at the two teams’ performances in a vacuum, the head-to-head is a strong reason why the market favors MKOI. The Spanish team has only lost a single match out of the six they’ve played since NAVI joined the LEC last year. Interestingly, this will be their first ever best-of-five.

On paper, MKOI has what it takes to take down NAVI once more. Joseph “Jojopyun” Joon Pyun should dominate the mid lane and David “Supa” Martínez García is also far ahead of Lee “SamD” Jae-hoon. The problem is MKOI’s complete lack of discipline.

Supa won’t falter in lane, he’s usually going to pull ahead. However, he’s the LEC player with the highest number of recorded extremely avoidable deaths. If all ADCs have a tendency to die in the mid lane because they didn’t realize they were catching waves that were too far up, Supa still has them all beat there.

It doesn’t matter if his summoner spells are up or down, he will play up. Not in order to position aggressively to deal more damage in a teamfight, no, rather because his survival instincts rival those of a scuttle crab.

One year ago, Supa threw a winning position at Worlds by having the shop opened while recalling away from cover. Twice in a row, resulting in his death. Last week, he repeated that feat several times against Team Vitality. Both carries for the Spanish side are poised to get ahead of their counterparts, the question lies upon their ability to make good use of that lead.

The struggles of NAVI in the LEC

On the other side, NAVI has their strongest assets in the jungle and top lane. Volodymyr “Maynter” Sorokin’s job will be to make Alex “Myrwn” Pastor Villarejo fold, while Enes “Rhilech” Uçan bears the heavy responsibility of carrying NAVI against a strong performing jungler.

Natus Vincere has had a select few clean games. The rest of the time though, they’re just as guilty as MKOI of struggling to close out their games.

Can NAVI beat MKOI despite their precedents? Image Credit: Wojciech Wandzel / Riot Games

What traders are saying

Users on the League of Legends subreddit all agree that MKOI will defeat NAVI. Natus Vincere struggles too much on the big stages, and several of their players were already underperforming against GiantX. On top of that, Jojopyun always beats Yoon “Poby” Sung-won.

Our prediction

Prediction: Movistar KOI to win

As much as the LEC would benefit from having another team go to Worlds, NAVI’s pathways to victory are too narrow. The precedents don’t go in their favor, and even though MKOI plays in a completely disjointed way, the individual baggage on NAVI’s side is too heavy.

Let us know your predictions on our forums.

Featured Image Credit: Wojciech Wandzel / Riot Games