Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality: Predictions for the LEC Playoffs

Naerlyn Published September 10, 2026

With the entire upper bracket of the LEC Summer Playoffs 2026 concluded, the lower bracket can finally begin. Up in round 1 is Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality, starting September 12 at 5pm CEST / 11am EST. The prediction markets have the two teams deadlocked as traders can’t decide on a favorite.

Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality prediction market

Market-implied chances courtesy of Polymarket on September 10, 2am CEST, with a volume of $8.56k.  

After the initial inaccuracies due to the small volume, the market has remained stable. While the team with higher market-implied chances changed every now and then, they both stayed at nearly 50%. Then, MKOI started pulling ahead as traders looked back on the teams’ history.

The prediction market for MKOI vs VIT. Image credit: Polymarket

Why the market favors Movistar KOI

Movistar KOI hasn’t impressed in 2026, and in Summer worst of all. In 2025, they were a top three team alongside G2 Esports and Karmine Corp (with Fnatic occasionally bumping their head in there). Each of them won one of the three splits.

In 2026, they’ve been the third best team simply by lack of another candidate to take that spot. No longer one of the three challengers for the title, they’re simply there harmlessly.

MKOI’s 2025 culminated in them once again utterly disappointing at the World Championship. The team simply looked like it was there, rather than here to compete. Worst of all was David “Supa” Martínez García recalling in an unsafe spot while shopping twice in a row, resulting in his death.

This year, they have kept that form and haven’t recovered from it. In Spring and Summer, MKOI has scored a single win per split against top six opponents. Individually, the players are strong enough for MKOI to be far better than the lower-ranked opponents. As a team however, the roster lacks discipline and doesn’t know how to win otherwise.

The playoff curse

So why does the market still favor MKOI? On the other side comes an equally major problem. In 2026, Team Vitality has been the champion of the regular season. Third in Winter, first in Spring, second in Summer, their performances are undeniable.

Then, their playoffs are as bad as their regular seasons are good – and the latter is only improving. In Spring, their 8-1 Round Robin made way to a 0-6 playoff run. As the Summer playoff has started 0-3 for Vitality, they’re on pace to repeat the feat.

There’s no explanation as to why VIT crumbles like that as soon as there are stakes. Vitality even replaced their mid laner this split in the hopes of changing something, without success so far. This match is a case of stoppable force meeting a movable object, and the market reflects it.

Will Team Vitality finally win a game in the LEC playoffs? Image credit: Hara Amorós / Riot Games

What traders are saying

Users on Reddit expect Vitality to lose, but part of it comes from wishing them to go 0-12 over the two playoffs. Movistar KOI also shows a better version of themselves in the playoffs. However, VIT played better than during the last bracket even though it still resulted in a 0-3 defeat against G2 Esports.

Our prediction

Prediction: Movistar KOI to win

Vitality’s poor playoff performances aren’t just a matter of luck or sample size; they’ve been wholly consistent ever since VIT joined the league. Since 2016, Vitality has never managed a series win rate above 50% in any playoffs. Clearly, their level is still dropping in the bracket this split, conceding the advantage to MKOI.

Let us know your predictions on our forums.

Featured image credit: Sasha Safranova / Riot Games

Related to: Lower bracket quarterfinal 2: VIT vs MKOI

Movistar KOI

Team Vitality LEC Summer 2026 Playoffs