G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp: Predictions for the LEC upper final

Naerlyn Published September 6, 2026

Day 2 of the LEC playoffs already brings out the best match-up in G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp, on Sunday 6, 5pm CEST / 11am EST for the upper final. Both teams have already qualified for the 2026 League of Legends World Championship with their round 1 wins. Instead, they’re playing for seeding and for the LEC title. The track record favors G2, but neither team is a clear favorite.

G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp prediction market

Market-implied chances courtesy of Polymarket on September 5, 10pm CEST, with a volume of $21.2k.  

The market can’t decide on a favorite, but the outcome remains stable: both teams have their market-implied probabilities circle around 50%.

The prediction market for G2 vs KC. Image Credit: Polymarket

Why the market slightly favors Karmine Corp

At the time of the snapshot, KC is given as the winner by a very slight margin. This comes from their last match combined with the regular season. G2’s overall level and their playoff history are the reason why the market-implied chances are so close to even.

Karmine Corp won all but one time these two teams met in a regular season. Most importantly, it was KC who won their encounter in the Summer Split. That being said, their regular season match took place in unique conditions.

Right after the Mid-Season Invitational and Esports World Cup, the LEC resumed the very next week with a roadshow. The teams once again played in front of a very large, very opinionated audience, and with very little rest. The resulting match was very close and G2 ended up losing off the back of a hectic game full of plays and inaccuracies from both sides. With the energy and noise from the crowd, the play was necessarily less clean, and this match will be different.

However, the more concerning aspect for G2 is the match they played against Team Vitality. G2 went 3-0 against VIT and KC beat GiantX 3-1, but G2 kept losing the early games to then effortlessly come back in the mid game. The problem is that this won’t work against KC.

Karmine Corp played a strong early game, better than what VIT can muster. To make matters worse, they’re the best LEC team when it comes to pushing their lead.

G2 beats KC every playoff

These points seem dire for the LEC champions, but every playoff in 2026 has told the same tale. KC looks better in the regular season, G2 crushes them in the bracket, before winning 3-2 in the grand final.

This isn’t just luck, G2 always steps up for the playoffs. This might not hold true this time given the weaknesses they showed against VIT. That being said, they still won 3-0.

G2 is 4-0 against KC in LEC playoffs in 2026. Image Credit: Hara Amorós / Riot Games

What traders are saying

Users on the League of Legends subreddit pointed out after the round 1 match that G2 isn’t showing their usual playoff level. The rest of the league drops down during playoffs and they didn’t have to do anything. As for KC, they’ve been inconsistent but their peaks from yesterday would beat G2 for sure. On the G2 subreddit, fans have instead started having more faith since the VIT victory.

Our prediction

Prediction: G2 Esports to win

G2 Esports has a habit of matching the level of the team they face. The team is at their weakest against lower-rated teams and can in the same event beat the reigning champions. While this prediction is the biggest toss-up of the split, we predict that G2 will take it.

Let us know your predictions on our forums.

Featured Image Credit: Hara Amorós / Riot Games